Asian Security Study

Final Readings Post

2009-12-10T07:48:00.000-08:00

This will be the final post on this blog. I am not giving up blogging, however, as I and some friends have founded a group blog where I can continue many of these themes. (In fact, I've post many things over there that would have worked here as well, dealing with Taiwan and North Korea.)

Today's readings focus on the region as a whole.

David Kang. “Getting Asia Wrong,” International Security Vol. 27, No. 4, Spring 2003, pp.57-85

Adelphi Papers: no. 400-401 Asian Security Issue

Pax Asiatica versus Bella Levantina: The Foundations of War and Peace in East Asia and the Middle East ETEL SOLINGEN University of California Irvine

As usual, we'll take these one at a time.

Kang: This piece is a mostly theoretical piece, talking about how the most common IR theories do not really apply to East Asia, and how East Asia is a great opportunity for revising and universalizing theories created in the shadow of European experience. He focuses mostly on realism, which I find somewhat problematic because realism is so easy to pick on. Kang is quite frank about how none of realism's predictions for East Asia came true, but realism's predictions never come true anywhere. Even in Europe, NATO still exists, Germany does not yet have the bomb, and there has been no massive war between the European powers. (And no, the Yugoslav war doesn't count, because the component parts of Yugoslavia do not count as great powers. Besides, the fact that the internal dynamics of a country could so heavily affect the other states destroys the very ideas of realism as well.)

I also take issue with a few minor points (such as the idea that a nationalistic South Korea would rather balance with China, which has historically oppressed Korea, against the US, which has played a part but not as heavy handed), but overall, I think there is a lot to be said for the main ideas. East Asia offers a state system and history vastly different from that of Europe, and thus could be useful for refining our ideas of "how IR works."

Adelphi: I was not aware when I first put this on the syllabus that it was, in fact, a large number of different speeches at a conference. Therefore, it is hard to categorize in this way. Most of these involved policy makers from around the region pledging greater cooperation, with US SecDef Robert Gates also pledging greater attention from the US. The Korean representative talked a lot about how Korea has grown and is a model for the world, while the Chinese representative talked about multipolarity.

Solingen: This piece tried to draw out why, despite very similar starting points, the Middle East and East Asia have diverged so sharply, mostly in terms of conflict but also economically. The article says that it is due to "competing domestic models of political survival," or simply that most of the major Middle Eastern states were able to rely on oil rents and thus could pursue disastrous but popular policies, or else were able to be militaristic and conflictual in ways that were absolutely disastrous for East Asian states. In other words, the resource curse killed any chance at developing normal relations in the Middle East. There were other things at work (Nasser's consistent meddling in other states, etc.), but the resource curse has to be the greatest cause of it.

There is another point that Solingen does not get to for quite awhile that I think may have as much to do with it. At least in Northeast Asia, the states in question had far more legitimacy than the states of the Middle East. No one either within the states or without doubted the right of the states of Japan, Korea, and China to exist. The same applies to some of the states of Southeast Asia, such as Vietnam and Thailand. Questions could be raised as to exact borders, and they did not hold the exact same level of legitimacy as Westphalian states, but the basic right for the Koreans, the Japanese, the Thai, etc., to have states was never in question. This is not the case in the Middle East, where not only was Israel surrounded by countries that did not believe in its right to exist, but the Arab states (being largely artificial lines drawn on a map) never held the internal legitimacy of (for example) Japan. No one in East Asia was seeking to impose a united East Asian state, like Nasser was seeking in his United Arab Republic. This probably helped tamp down quite a bit on conflict as well.

Readings

2009-12-02T07:48:00.000-08:00

This week's readings unfortunately retread ground covered before, because they are about terrorism in parts of the world I've already covered. But, here they are regardless:

Chien-peng Chung, “China's "War on Terror”: September 11 and Uighur Separatism.” Foreign Affairs. 81(4) (July-August 2002), pp. 8-12,

David Capie, “Between a Hegemon and a Hard Place: the ‘War on Terror’ and Southeast Asian-US Relations,” The Pacific Review, Vol. 17, No. 2 (June 2004), pp. 223-248

Chung's piece very helpfully rehashes arguments made before about Uighur separatism, especially that hard fighting is not going to do much to solve it. Instead, China needs to focus on meeting Uighur needs and forming some kind of peace. The major problem with the piece is that Chung completely ignores the fact that Han nationalism is one of the constitutive parts of Chinese legitimacy these days, and so it cannot go too far in appeasing the Uighurs without losing legitimacy among the Han. (This can be seen in the riots that happened after the police did not start locking up all the Uighurs during the panic over hypodermic jabbings in Xinjiang.) So, while I can certainly hope that China will do something, I'm not optimistic.

Capie's piece is an interesting, if rather academic, look at how Malaysia, Indonesia, and Philippines have all responded to the post 9/11 American foreign policy. I am not at all surprised that the realist predictions all fall through (none of them are balancing against the US! Yet, none are fully bandwagoning either!) nor that Huntington's "Clash of Civilizations" theory doesn't offer much help. (Weirdly, Capie consistently misspells Huntington's name as "Huntingdon".) Instead, it is domestic factors along with external factors that determine the overall policies.

One interesting thing I'd never seen before was the idea of the "Rumsfeld Principle," in which the mission defines the coalition (rather than vice versa). Perhaps it's my inherent love for middle ground rather than extremes, but it seems that this is another way of saying "We're doing it our way, come with us or not." This is never a good way to make policy or decisions; you need to accept input from all around before "defining the mission."

In general, personally, I'd like to see terrorism become less of a priority, with perhaps "instability" taking it's place, at least as far as Pacific Asia is concerned. Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand are all fairly representative governments, and further democratization and economic development would likely make them even more stable, thus decreasing the range of motion for terrorists and reducing the chances of overall war in the region. They could also make good examples for a certain more northern behemoth. Just narrowly targeting "terrorism" on the other hand does nothing to solve the greater problems.

Institutionalism and Philippines

2009-12-02T05:54:00.000-08:00

The Philippines and MILF have created a forum in which to discuss their grievances, known (blandly enough) as the International Contact Group. But, as bland as it is, it's definitely a step towards resolving the issues, especially as they are bringing in many more powerful states and IGOs to make sure a resolution is found.

I'm optimistic, because it truly seems that both the government and the rebels want peace. Let's see if Arroyo can make this her legacy.

Not dead yet!

2009-11-30T21:33:00.001-08:00

It says something about North Korea that we all wait until South Korea announces that Kim is still alive.

That the financial markets panicked over it is scary. I'll admit that I'm terrified of what will happen when Kim kicks it. I expect a certain amount of chaos, personally. We'll have to see.

He is not yet dead
That's what the geezer said
No, he's not yet dead
That man is off his head

Apologies to Eric Idle, et al.

Australia Readings

2009-11-30T13:32:00.001-08:00

It was difficult to find many readings on Australian security, and I had to settle for one about the new semi-alliance between Australia and Japan. However, it helps to fix some thoughts I've been having about the future of security in Asia.

Bisley, Nick "The Japan-Australia security declaration and the changing regional security setting: wheels, webs and beyond?" Australian Journal of International Affairs, vol. 62, no. 1, pp. 38-52, Mar. 2008

This security declaration is a great step in moving towards a network of alliances in East Asia, linking together two of our strongest allies in the region. (The author is somewhat upset that South Korea has been left out of all of this, but hopefully that can be fixed with stronger bilateral ties to each of them.) It is particularly useful because it is very explicitly not intended to contain or balance against China, but instead to help with humanitarian problems. This has been a much larger problem for East Asia than interstate war for the last two decades, and can be a real step forward for overall peace in the region.

Importantly, Bisley states that it is important to remember that this is probably the limit of possible cooperation between Australia and Japan, rather than a beginning. This is fine, however. This is the greatest strength of a network-centered approach, rather than attempting and failing to make a formal multilateral alliance. Each state is able to make the connections it can, and hopefully this can be expanded.

I think Bisley may poo-poo the idea too much, but is overall rather supportive. I'm even more supportive, particularly as a guide for going forward to help the whole region maintain stability.

Search and Rescue Cooperation

2009-11-29T11:16:00.000-08:00

China and Japan are two of the most important powers in East Asia (with South Korea right behind), and so it's very heartening to see these two working on military cooperation, even if only on maritime search and rescue.

There are still worries about budgets and misrepresentations, but all efforts to increase cooperation between US allies and China will help keep the region stable, particularly if it can help keep China happy and not paranoid about the intentions of the US and its allies.

Recurring theme

2009-11-29T11:01:00.001-08:00

One of the recurring ideas I've been struggling with recently is the idea that concessions and respect earn dividends. I won't claim that its something new or unusual, at least for middle powers, but it seems that much of the American pundit class is having trouble with it.

Fortunately, there are some who are showing how it can work, including Barack Obama. This can be seen in concessions made by China after Barack Obama left. Andrew Sullivan (commenting on reporting done by Jim Fallows) helps to show that. On three of the four major issues that most people have been pushing Obama to push China on (the fourth being human rights), China shows progress after the President went home. That suggests (though does not prove; I don't want to be accused of post hoc/propter hoc issues) that the President had some effect while he was there.

And this is the essence of diplomacy. Loudly demanding things from countries gets you nowhere, even if you are the unipower. Perhaps, actually, especially if you are the unipower.

Readings Post

2009-11-18T12:37:00.000-08:00

This is what I think of when the Russian military comes to mind. This is a MiG that basically fell out of the sky during an air show. That's what the entire Russian military is like right now. All of the machinery is left over from the USSR. Therefore, I don't tend to worry too much about Russian military supremacy.

This week's readings all had to do with Russian power in the Far East. Even if the Russian military has become a joke, they are still a great power. Between nuclear weapons and enough energy to really affect the world energy market, the world has to content with Russia. With that, I read the following:

Paradorn Rangsimaporn, Russia’s Debate on Military-Technological Cooperation with China: From Yeltsin to Putin”, Asian Survey, May/June 2006.

Elizabeth Wishnick, “Russia and the CIS in 2005: Promoting East Asian Oil Diplomacy, Containing Change in Central Asia”, Asian Survey, January/February 2006.

The Brookings Institute: The Future of Russian Energy Policy, November 2006

The overall thrust of the first two deals with Sino-Russian relations. They both basically say the same things. China and Russia are trying hard to work together, but suspicion of each other (and desires to maintain good relations with the US, while theoretically balancing against the US by helping each other) make it difficult.

In particular, the first article is about Russia's arm sales to China, and the conflict within Russia about it. I find it interesting that Russia sends more arms and equipment to China in sales than it buys for its own troops. (Again, the actual Russian military is ridiculous.) I find the argument that the items being sold are only good for fighting in the South China Sea, and thus Russia has nothing to worry about, patently ridiculous. The money China saves by buying these weapons is fungible, and could be redirected (easily!) to the kind of land-based systems that Russia fears. Even if China hasn't yet, there is the possibility.

The second article is all about Sino-Russian cooperation in Central Asia, mostly in attempting to keep the US out. Other than that, however, China and Russia actually have such divergent goals in Central Asia that I doubt they'll be able to cooperate for too long. Russia wants to keep Central Asian energy supplies going through Russia or Russian proxies, in order to maintain its grip on the energy markets. China wants to control that energy in order to maintain its own self-sufficiency. The two will be competing for some time.

The last article perhaps gives some of the most important points about Russia that should be kept in mind. Vladimir Milov, the former Deputy Minister of Energy in Russia, reminds us that the double-headed eagle is the long-standing symbol of Russia.

This means that Russia is always looking in two different directions. This fits with everything I've heard about Russia from people who know the country well (which I'll admit I do not). It is too easy to pretend that Russia is a monolith, or that Russia never really changes, or that Russia is implacably against democracy or incapable of modernization, etc. Russian history is full of time periods when Russia was in the lead in modernizing, and plenty of time periods when it was far behind.

Opportunities to cooperate with Russia need to be pursued for this reason. Russia does best when it feels brought into the international system, and most often retreats from it when it feels abused or derided. In particular, we are starting to see possible splits within the Russian leadership (particularly Putin and Medvedev), and we need to be aware that it is not yet the autocracy we think.

Asinine

2009-11-18T12:15:00.001-08:00

This is one of the most asinine things I've seen in awhile.

The author (Daniel Blumenthal) tries to take two fairly empty statements about the US cooperating with China and turn it into some kind of monstrous concession to Chinese dominance of the world.

The first passage that Blumenthal has a problem with:

The two countries reiterated that the fundamental principle of respect for each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity is at the core of the three U.S.-China joint communiqués which guide U.S.-China relations. Neither side supports any attempts by any force to undermine this principle. The two sides agreed that respecting each other's core interests is extremely important to ensure steady progress in U.S.-China relations.

Blumenthal says this "comes closer to officially accepting the Chinese claim of sovereignty" over Taiwan. Even if Taiwan was the subject of this part, it in now way says that we accept that Taiwan is part of China's territory. I agree with him that this respect was not the core of the original agreements (kicking Soviet butt, geopolitically, was), but at this point without a bare minimum recognition of this we do nothing but play into Chinese paranoia.

He also complains that Obama hasn't sold any weapons to Taiwan, despite "being bound by law." He ignores that, by international law (aka the ~~treaties~~ communiques we signed with China) we have been bound to reduce those sales over time. Hasn't happened. Also, as of right now, Taiwan is fine. It will need more military ales later, but hopefully that will be at a time when our economy has recovered and we are no longer so reliant on China.

However, this is not as bizarre as his statements on China and India. Responding to this bit of text:

The two sides welcomed all efforts conducive to peace, stability and development in South Asia. They support the efforts of Afghanistan and Pakistan to fight terrorism, maintain domestic stability and achieve sustainable economic and social development, and support the improvement and growth of relations between India and Pakistan. The two sides are ready to strengthen communication, dialogue and cooperation on issues related to South Asia and work together to promote peace, stability and development in that region.

Somehow, this is a horrible capitulation to China and an attempt to force India to deal with Pakistan, rather than helping India do what it wants by confronting China. Somehow, this is attempting to keep India down as a regional, rather than world power.

And, even if somehow, some way, having India help in dealing with Pakistani and Afghani problems really does boost Chinese power...it doesn't change the fact that right now, in the world of today (and not 10 years or 20 years away, when China might actually be able to rival the US), we have troops in Afghanistan and we are fighting in Pakistan. Right now, we need Indian help there, not in containing the China of twenty years from now.

Blumenthal is also upset that this "elevates" China while "demeaning" India, making it a "regional" power rather than a "global" one. It ignores the realities on the ground in South Asia, including that there are continuing issues between the two nuclear armed powers in the region. It also ignores that, right now, that's what India is. I'll be the first to say that we need to work with India, and make it a key partner and support its bid to greatness. But to ignore reality in order to make accusations at Obama and China is patently ridiculous.

Obama's Trip

2009-11-18T10:13:00.000-08:00

Overall, I'm really happy with Obama's trip abroad. Despite some cranks, Obama presented an America comfortable with its roles and comfortable with its relations to its allies.

Now, Obama is in South Korea for a fairly routine visit. It's weird that now the US-South Korean relationship is so strong and trouble-free again. "Anti-Americanism" in South Korea was one of the biggest topics just a few years ago, when I first started paying attention to the politics of the area. Now, the US and South Korea stand firm on almost everything again.

I'm hoping then that the small concessions to Japan (particularly on the Okinawa issue) can lead to keeping that alliance just as firm. I would love to see a ROK-Japan alliance in the future (I know, there are so many historical issues, but once upon a time so did the US and British). That kind of three-sided, democratic alliance could do a lot of good in stabilizing the region. We'll have to see.

North Korean special forces

2009-11-15T20:08:00.000-08:00

Kyle Mizokami at War is Boring has an interesting post up describing the new enlarged North Korean special forces as (possibly) an insurance policy for the regime, rather than forces designed to attack South Korea. The basic idea is that the spec ops forces are to be a ready-made insurgency just in case the US or ROK forces conquer the country. This would be a sensible idea, as there is no way for the DPRK forces to prevent a US/ROK combined takeover, assuming of course China does not intervene again.

The only problem with the thesis is that we have no evidence that the special forces are trained for that. All of the evidence points to them being trained for surreptitious crossing of the border and from there conduct traditional guerrilla warfare. On the other hand, Kyle reports them being trained in IEDs.

If nothing else, this should help to persuade US policy makers that force is not going to be very successful against the Kim regime.

Makes me happy

2009-11-15T09:05:00.000-08:00

This is the right way to go about it. Prudent cooperation, minor concessions to allies who have felt neglected or slighted, and a push for human rights that carries no threats. Contrary to some, this is not a position of weakness. The US does not need to be fighting with either its own allies or China, even though it has the military might to probably do so just fine. Instead, it is a pragmatic way to make the country more safe now, and into the future.

Indian/Japanese Relations

2009-11-12T11:27:00.000-08:00

Galrahn at Information Dissemination has a post up about new ties between India and Japan. The two moving together, possibly forming an axis with the US and South Korea, could be a strong force for stability in East Asia. This would also fit in well with the "network" approach brought up in some of the ASEAN readings. A network of bilateral ties could help strengthen into a web of cooperation and support.

The fear, of course, is in establishing a system like that prior to WWI ,when the overlapping alliances led people to be pulled into war. However, with the off-shore balancer always on the horizon now (rather than conceivably remaining aloof, as it was prior to WWI), it should be less likely. At the very least, the US should try to encourage these kinds of ties between US allies and the states the US is trying to bring on as allies.

Preparing for any eventuality

2009-11-12T11:05:00.000-08:00

Armchair Generalist links to a Defense News piece about US-ROK plans for dealing with DPRK nukes after the regime falls apart. I'm glad that the Pentagon has realized how much more dangerous North Korean instability can be than North Korean attack. In particular, nobody wants rogue elements within the North Korean state (or starving scientists in the worst-case post-Soviet scenario) getting those bombs or even the nuclear material. While I'm not saying that this should be the center of planning, it is important.

One thing that the original article notes that I think Armchair Generalist neglects is the China angle. I believe that these are the kind of plans that can and should be shared with China, to the degree consistent with national security. Any intervention in North Korea will be politically perilous, and surprising China with it would only make that worse. If we can even get Chinese support in a post-collapse intervention, so much the better. Obviously, capabilities, yada yada yada should be protected, but if there was ever a moment to show trust and hopefully build some in return, this could be it.

Still going to have bilateral talks with North Korea

2009-11-11T18:01:00.000-08:00

This is despite the skirmish with South Korea a few days ago. Since this is not a new idea in the wake of the skirmish, I can't really see how this can be spun as "giving in" to North Korean pressure or as a "reward" for bad behavior, but I'm sure someone will try to. Nothing about the skirmish negates the usefulness of bilateral negotiations. Fortunately, South Korea agrees.

Relatedly, why does North Korea bother lying about what happened? The DPRK is claiming to have driven the South Korean vessel off, a lie that can be easily disproven. It makes no sense.

2009-11-11T17:05:00.000-08:00

It is sad to see some talking about an end to the "special relationship" with Japan. As the strongest, longest democracy in East Asia, this relationship has helped to maintain stability and prosperity for both sides for 50 years now. In particular, I hope that Obama can get things back on track, particularly after some impolitic moves by SecDef Gates.

I believe this is a good moment for some strategic appeasement on the US's side. While shuttering the Okinawa base would be overkill, some concessions to show that the US accepts the full equality of the partnership. (One can make a case that the US-Japanese alliance is in no way equal, but even if one accepts that, it is no way to keep an alliance.) Honestly, Japan is a stronger ally than many of the newer NATO allies, and deserves a position that recognizes that, and the current institutions in place don't seem to do that. Some small moves that way will go a long way toward fixing the current rift.

Readings Post

2009-11-11T11:22:00.000-08:00

This week, I read about India and its place in the East Asian security sphere. In particular, I read:

Ashton Carter, “America’s New Strategic Partner?” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2006

C. Raja Mohan, “India and the Balance of Power” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2006

Both were particularly pleased with new American plans to make a semi-ally out of India. I cannot argue; it's a great idea. A very large country expected to build up a large economy and already possessing one of the larger militaries in the region makes for a strong partner. Add in the importance of the region and the ideological and cultural connections, and it becomes a wonder that the US had not reached out to India previously. Even the Cold War really is no excuse, since the US had already made countries like Poland or China allies at different points.

These two articles really overlap, with the Carter article spending more time on the nuclear deal, and the Mohan coming at the idea more from an Indian perspective and looking at the overall picture.

One thing I think both articles understate is the extent to which India and China are competitors. Both countries have gone out of their way to downplay this idea, and have set up some very good cooperative ventures. However, they still have some VERY strong disagreements on borders. They also have a potential flashpoint in Tibet, with India supporting the Dalai Lama and giving him sanctuary. Add in to this the normal rising power tension, and the competition for influence in southeast Asia, and it becomes obvious how much it is in India's interest to have the US on its side.

This opens up interesting possibilities for US diplomacy, if the US is willing to really play the diplomatic game. In a strategic triangle like this, the strongest position is to be the pivot between two rivals, as long as you are willing to use that to your advantage. Right now, a pro-India tilt makes sense, as India is the weaker party. However, the US (if nimble enough), could use the position and threats of tilting in different directions to attempt some concessions from both China and India.

Of course, US diplomacy is seldom that nimble. Instead, the US could end up in a position closer to the one it holds between the PRC and ROC. That probably wouldn't help anyone at all. But, there are interesting possibilities to be considered in preserving the power of the region, and maintaining its own relevance.

Thai/Cambodian Rift

2009-11-10T05:34:00.000-08:00

I doubt this will boil over into war or anything, but the near soap opera of the fight between Cambodia and Thailand over the appointment of former Thai prime minister Thaksin is intriguing. I don't even claim to understand what Cambodia was thinking in appointing Thaksin to an advisory post on economics (I know, he was a successful businessman and had some limited success in alleviating poverty, but only limited success). They had to know that it would piss Thailand off, though I didn't expect an extradition request.

Will this go to war? I doubt it. I don't even know if Cambodia has a functioning military, but Thailand has enough to deal with in its own south. But it's something to keep an eye on.

Korean Firefight

2009-11-09T22:12:00.001-08:00

Once again, the two Korean militaries are firing on each other again. Of course, this happens all the time, and no one should get too excited. However, this time supposedly ended in North Korean deaths, which is the first time in a while.

Here's hoping it's just the same-old, same-old.

Okinawa

2009-11-09T09:23:00.001-08:00

I often wonder about the usefulness of any given military base. One good example of this is the massive base in Okinawa. It is tremendously unpopular with the people of Okinawa, who have fairly consistently asked for the US to leave. (At the same time, it seems pretty clear that the Okinawans want the Japanese out, despite being legally part of Japan.) From any kind of liberal democratic standpoint, maintaining the base there against the wishes of the inhabitants screams colonialism, even if it is abetted by the "national" government (that many Okinawans also do not recognize).

This seems like one of the most controversial ones, though, because Okinawa occupies a particularly useful position in the area. It's halfway between Japan proper and Taiwan, and helps to solidify the first "band" of islands around the Chinese waters. If one was at all worried about trouble with China, it would be the most logical place to have a base. Japan knows this as well, and wants to keep the US troops where they are.

I do not really have an answer to this, except to keep in mind that these are actual competing claims on the national interest, and probably should not be swept under the rug. However, due to the assorted other bases this would have implications for (including Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean), I don't see any real accounting for this happening any time in the near future.

2009-11-04T07:05:00.000-08:00

This week, we continue on with readings about ASEAN, but this time focusing squarely on the military challenges facing the grouping. The readings:

Joshua H. Ho, The Security of Sea Lanes in Southeast Asia, Asian Survey August 2006.

John F. Bradford, The Growing Prospects for Maritime Security Cooperation in Southeast Asia,

Naval War College Review, Summer 2005

Richard A. Bitzinger, “Come the Revolution”, Naval War College Review, Autumn 2005

Eric A. McVadon, China’s Maturing Navy, Naval War College Review, Spring 2006

Ho: This piece starts off on an odd note, as it compares the economies of China, Japan, and India (combined) to that of the US and EU. This seems to me to be a rather large mistake; Japan is already the second largest economy in the world and both Japan and India have long-standing tensions with China. To just lump them together, and say that combined they have half of the GDP of the US right now and that by 2015 they will (again, combined) surpass the US and EU (not combined) seems kind of silly and pointless, except as a possible scare tactic.

But, all of that is pretty secondary, as Ho is just trying to make the point that "the sea lanes along Southeast Asia are vital to the transportation of goods, energy, and raw materials to the dynamic economies of Northeast Asia". One does not need to resort to hyperbole or geostrategically meaningless claims to make this point.

The actual meat of the article gives a good account of all the ways the countries in the region (and beyond) are working together to combat piracy. I was unaware of the sheer number of different multilateral groupings in Southeast Asia, and will need to do some research later into the Western Pacific Naval Symposium, as it strikes me as a potentially very useful group for peace in the general area. There really isn't a conclusion to the piece however, other than "maritime crime is bad for everyone".

Bradford: This piece takes some of that logic, and takes it a step further, giving recommendations on the kinds of cooperation are necessary. Of course, this piece is a little dated now (because piracy in the region has decreased dramatically). In many ways, this week's readings are merely reiterating those from several weeks ago about piracy in Southeast Asia. I expected more ASEAN this week, and less general "piracy bad" stuff.

Of most importance in this reading is Bradford's defense of bilateral cooperation, and in particular his push to make that the main kind of cooperation in the region. The general idea is that, while multilateral grouping have more theoretical power, any grouping can only do as much as the "least keen" member wants. In a bilateral situation, you can reach the level that both want, but dragging in additional members would lower the amount that can actually be done. Even more interesting is his push for a "network" of such alliances, where the countries involved establish these bilateral ties to the extent they can with each country of importance. I think there is an interesting idea here for US strategy to the region as a whole (something I have been thinking on recently), as a way to move away from the "hub and spokes".

Bitzinger: This pieces if focusing on the possibility of modernizing the militaries of the states in the "Asian Pacific." In essence, the many governments of the area (including potential rivals like China and strong allies like South Korea, Japan, and Australia) have been paying a lot of lip service to creating their own "Revolution in Military Affairs" much like the vaunted US one, but none of the countries have really gone beyond buying new equipment. This should be seen as good news for the US, since preserving the status quo in the region is great for the unipolar power. Of course, the problem is that the one country that has gone the furthest on this is the one that is the most likely rival, China. Also problematic is that China may be seeking to counter the US advantage, rather than imitating the US's form of RMA. On the other hand, so far, China's "modernization" of their Navy and Air Force have been rather lacking, and much of the increase in spending has been instead on "legacy" and high-visibility items. While we have many of the same problems (F-22 anyone?), there has been more push for the command-and-control, intelligence, etc., items needed for the real high-tech revolution.

As an aside, I'm not sure that China has the internal conditions necessary to fight according to Biddle's ideas of "modern warfare", due to the large class and ethnic problems within the country. It would be interesting to see an analysis of that.

McVadon: This is a piece explicitly about the Chinese navy, which poses the largest threat to American interests in the entire world, and especially in the Pacific. He describes it as not a mature navy, but instead "adolescent." In effect, it has a nearly-mature body (platforms and weapons) but the mind is still very adolescent (command/control, doctrine, etc.) Also, the ability to coordinate the different forces is still very weak; supposedly, many PLA generals still treat the PLAN as an adjunct, rather than a co-equal force.

His overall conclusion is one that slightly contradicts the RAND report I read earlier this year about a Chinese attack on Taiwan. The RAND report states that Taiwan could most likely fend off a Chinese invasion; McVadon believes that Taiwan would succumb. However, that is only an incidental point to him; his main point is that the US could still defeat the PLAN if the US got involved. Mostly, this is due to the lack of experience with new forms of warfare in the PLAN.

To sum up the readings: The maritime is one area where the US maintains a clear superiority, but there is ample concern about non-state threats that will require the cooperation of the whole region. The US obviously cannot force this, but offering to assist in ways specified by the governments in the area could be invaluable. The fight against piracy has already shown what that kind of cooperation can do, and hopefully it can be a model for the future and thus keep conflict and war low in the region.

2009-11-04T05:29:00.000-08:00

So, just as North Korea announces that it is producing more nuclear material, one of the other rock-star heads of state is taking a stab at dealing with, though not in person.

Sarko has a history of this, and it has often paid off. Also, it's possible the North Koreans might accept bilateral negotiations with the French as a substitute for bilateral negotiations with the Americans.

The biggest difference is that Sarko is not the one going, but instead the Socialist and former Culture Minister, Jack Lang. It makes a lot of sense for Sarko not to go himself, but I wonder how much the North Koreans will care about a former Culture Minister. We had to send Bill Clinton to get our journalists back, though in this case the French are considering concessions that we weren't.

Good luck Land and Sarko. Anything that can break this impasse right now, no matter how improbable, should probably be commended.

Definition of Insanity

2009-11-02T19:51:00.001-08:00

China is launching a brand new "strike hard" campaign in Xinjiang. This is the second time that China has done this. The first time, it temporarily put down the uprising (in an extremely brutal fashion), but also radicalized the entire generation. Perhaps, this time, they think they can't radicalize the Uyghurs anymore than they have.

Actually, from a nationalist perspective, it makes great sense. Right now, they are more worried about the Han in Xinjiang revolting, and right now the Han are scared enough that they are also questioning the ability of the government to maintain order. However, I still don't see a good ending to all of this.

Dalai Lama and China, round 5,256

2009-11-01T18:21:00.000-08:00

China recently executed two people for their parts in the riots last year in Lhasa, and now is prosecuting a movie maker. The movie showed regular Tibetan people expressing their love of the Dalai Lama and heaping scorn on the Chinese authorities and the large number of Han moving into their lands. The man who made it, Dhondup Wangchen, knew that it was likely he'd get arrested (and so sent all of his family away to India for protection). Supposedly, he has been tortured, but the Chinese government has not allowed anyone to have access to him.

Why does this matter for East Asian security? Every outrage like this gives more credence to China's greatest boogeyman, the Dalai Lama. How can China dispute the words of the Dalai Lama if they constantly do exactly what he accuses them of? Moreover, though the Tibetans have long been more pacifistic than the Uyghurs (and, despite what the PRC government says, the Dalai Lama is more pacifistic than most), there is probably a limit to the amount of pushing and repression.

The other thing to keep in mind is that the biggest sticking points between India and China is Tibet. India shelters the Dalai Lama and his entire government-in-exile. The other big sticking point is the exact boundaries of Tibet vs. India. The more tension there is between the Dalai Lama and China, the more tension there will be between India and China. It really is in China's best interest to reach SOME kind of accommodation with a guy seen as one of the holiest men in the world.

Reading Post IX

2009-10-28T13:12:00.000-07:00

This week, the readings were all about ASEAN and Southeast Asia (I know, again). This time, however, I (thought) I was focusing on the organization, rather than the individual countries. Some of the readings did that, one didn't. But first, the readings:

Manea, Maria-Gabriela, "How and Why Interaction Matters: ASEAN's Regional Identity and Human Rights" Cooperation and Conflict, vol. 44, no. 1, pp. 27-49, Mar 2009

Christopher Hemmer and Peter J. Katzenstein, “Why is There No NATO in Asia? Collective Identity, Regionalism, and the Origins of Multilateralism,” International Organization, Vol. 56, No. 3 (Summer 2002), pp. 575 - 607

Nishikawa, Yukiko, "The "ASEAN Way" and Asian Regional Security," Politics & policy 2007 35, 1 42 -56

Ruukan Katanyuu, "Beyond Non-Interference in ASEAN: The Association’s Role in Myanmar’s National Reconciliation and Democratization," Asian Survey December 2006

I should probably add that I was utterly unaware of which countries are in ASEAN. I knew Malaysia and Indonesia, and kind of assumed that some of the other nearby ones (Brunei, Singapore) were in it, but I did not know that the Philippines were a founding member, nor that ASEAN had expanded to include what used to be known as Indochina. (Does the peninsula itself have a name?) I feel really dumb for not knowing that, and I know the internet is not the place to admit ignorance on things that basic, but there you go.

On to the readings:

Hemmer and Katzenstein: There was little here that was all the surprising to me. Really, the US treated SEATO and NATO differently because of (basically) racism? Not really a shock. They do a good job putting together all of the data to show that the US treated multilateralism differently in Southeast Asia and the "Atlantic Community" simply because the US saw itself as a descendant of Europe, and saw Asians as savages, but I think the general idea should be pretty obvious. I did find the idea of creating these regions basically out of linguistic cloth interesting, as well.

Nishikawa: I knew little of ASEAN's general work in the region, so this was useful for understanding how ASEAN deals with problems among its constituent states. I find it really interesting (and will come back to this with a different reading) that states who feel such a need to create a supranational organization also feel so jealous of their sovereignty. I also think that more emphasis on "management" of issues, rather than "resolution," could be useful around the world. If our goal is to stop people from dying, it would probably help to start with that as our base, rather than a comprehensive solution that ends the dispute once and for all.

Manea: This one was extremely theoretical, and it was difficult for me to wade through. However, it really helped to set some of the stage for me with Nishikawa. I am, of course, ecstatic to see these rising powers (and yes, obviously Indonesia and Malaysia are rising powers, and I dare say Singapore is already a middle power, at least economically) take such a keen interest in human rights. More than that, though, is the way that the democratization impulse has changed the nature of the organization. The democratizing powers (Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines) have left behind the legacy of colonialism, to a large degree, and are now willing to stand up and require more of others. This changes the organization from a way to avoid colonial interference to instead do real good. I like that.

Katanyuu: This is really just a case study of how ASEAN has interacted with Burma since inviting Burma to join, and in particular how it has come to allow itself to push Burma on what had previously been seen as "internal affairs". This was by far the clearest expression of how ASEAN used to work, and how it has changed. Of the four, it is by far the one I'd recommend most for someone interested in this subject.

Next week will be ASEAN's actual military affairs, which I think I will have more comments on.

Good thinking!

2009-10-27T17:26:00.000-07:00

More evidence for why Gates is the best SecDef I can ever remember. Pushing for military cooperation with the second greatest military force in the world should be a no-brainer, and yet I'm sure it will be controversial for some.

Additionally, it was a nice gesture for Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission of China to lay a wreath at a memorial for those who died in 9/11.

Regionalism and Transnationalism

2009-10-27T16:56:00.000-07:00

I tend to be a big fan of the power of institutions to achieve good effects in the world, if only in making it easier for states to cooperate and share information. However, while the EU makes a great case for how this can work, I'm skeptical of the ability of any other region, particularly ASEAN+, to do the same.

This is a region with a dizzying difference in incomes (far more than the original EEC, I believe, with Singapore having 150x the per capita GDP of Burma), with very diverse political structures (from democracies in the Philippines, South Korea, and Japan, to autocratic one-party systems like China and Vietnam, to family autocracies like Singapore, and even a military junta in Burma), and with very different identities (Christian, Muslim, Buddhist, Confucian, and atheist, not to mention the extremely large number of ethnicities and nationalities). This project will have every single problem the EU had, and then some. Some of the players even want to include the US and other non-Asian countries. I expect this to be a nice idea, floated around, but then quietly set aside.

The Economist on North Korea

2009-10-27T15:55:00.000-07:00

The Economist this week points out once again the utter horror that is living in North Korea. Those reading this blog know that this is an issue dear to my heart. No one should be shocked to learn about work camps, forced starvation, or mass executions. The state is collecting most of its revenues from giant extortion rackets, threatening people with any of the above unless they pay for protection.

Unfortunately, the recommendations of the Economist are laughable. The article suggests that the West should beam "radio broadcasts that offer another reality to the state-manufactured one". This neglects the fact that the US is already beaming in VOA and Radio Free North Korea. It also neglects the fact that North Korea jams most stations, and also fixes all radios to only pick up state approved stations. Owning a radio that could even pick up these illicit radio broadcasts would be a massive risk for anyone willing to do so.

The second option given was to offer "apparatchiks and the elite education abroad". However, that is already happening, if only illicitly or in China. Kim's youngest son went to school in Switzerland; most of the rest of the high officials went to school in China. There is no love lost for the DPRK system within the Chinese university system (especially by the real Communists who dislike the monarchical style of the North Koreans). Moreover, those let out of the country will only be those with the utmost loyalty to the regime. While there may be some overall softening and socializing of leaders, I am unsure how much it would do to change the regime. On top of that, I can't imagine it would do anything to help the people on the ground. (Never mind all the work that would have to be done first, including restoring diplomatic relations.)

My heart bleeds as much as anyone's for those trapped in the evils of the North Korean regime. However, there needs to be some recognition that there is a strong limit on what the outside world can do. North Korea is not a country that's likely to change just because the outside world engages in a little propaganda or tries to push it.

Beyond that...there is a little worry in the back of my mind. I am still worried about the possible aftereffects of the utter collapse of the North Korean state. I'm not saying that American/Western pressure will bring the state down, but I think it may be more likely right now than the kinds of reforms we would like.

UPDATE: Ha! Looks like at least one actual important pundit (Michael Crowley) has come to the same conclusion, if only a few days later.

Interesting scuttlebutt

2009-10-22T10:20:00.000-07:00

There are changes afoot on the Korean peninsula, but it doesn't seem like any grand change in the overall situation.

On the Southern side, the US has once again pledged to defend South Korea, going so far as to say that South Korea is under the US nuclear umbrella. I'm not sure anyone really doubted that fact, but having the SecDef say it definitely gives it more oomph. More important was the side-by-side agreement Gates and ROK Defence Minister Kim Tae-Yong showed. At the same time, the timetable for full ROK command of its own forces in wartime is still on track for 2012. This is great news for the Korean state, which has long felt slighted by the provisions of previous agreements that put ROK forces under the command of the US, but I have to admit to some slight worry over C&C issues should war break out at that point. I'm hoping that the US and ROK forces are strongly putting together all the joint-planning systems they will need to coordinate.

More importantly, however, in that same article SecDef Gates says that the US and ROK forces are planning for what is probably the likeliest scenario, a full break-down in internal order in DPRK. There were no details, but I'm glad to know that our leaders have realized how likely that is, and how deleterious.

This is especially important now that the succession plans in DPRK are apparently becoming more dicey. Apparently Kim Jong-Il is not happy with how his son, Kim Jong Eun has been handling his responsibility over the military. Moreover, North Korean officials who visited South Korea several months ago to attend the late President Kim Dae Jung's funeral were exceptionally solicitous, and took a harangue by President Lee Myung-bak very courteously, promising to try to stop northern provocations.

This worries me, in some ways. A strong North Korea could be disastrous, particularly if it decided it was strong enough to attack South Korea. On the other hand, a very weak North Korea could collapse entirely. Moreover, North Korea is not East Germany; I don't think it will meekly accept merger with South Korea on its own terms, at least not with the Kim family in charge. This is a monarchy, not a Communist country, and so the preservation of the monarchy becomes vastly more important. There is no way for a "new generation" of leaders to come in except through a literal dynastic change, and then that leader will have more interest in the preservation of that system than a man who worked his way up from the ground floor. (Yes, this is an argument based on constructed identity, not raw power. So sue me.) While there have been kings who have liberalized, I'm not sure it will be possible in North Korea without unleashing a tidal wave, ending in the dissolution of the DPRK and the rest of the world picking up the pieces.

This is what will be unleashed on the region. I know that merely being polite does not mean that North Korea is weak, but along with rumors of succession issues on top, it makes me worry. It also makes me doubly glad that Gates and Kim Tae-yong are working on that issue now.

Reading Post VIII

2009-10-21T07:29:00.001-07:00

Today, I read about the Straits of Malacca, and the piracy problems there.

Bradford, John F., "Shifting the Tides Against Piracy in Southeast Asian Waters," Asian Survey Vol. 48 Issue 3

Prior to the last couple of years, if anyone in the know talked about piracy, they were talking about the area around the Straits of Malacca. The piracy in the region was a growing problem until 2004, when it started to decline again. I knew a little about this, because I had done some research into Somali piracy last year, and a friend helped me with some knowledge he'd picked up about what had worked in this area. But, I didn't know much overall.

I remembered him telling me about the "tsunami thesis," which basically said that the tsunami of '04 had so damaged the pirates that they couldn't pirate anymore. This article pretty well demolishes that, by showing that they've had plenty of time to get back together, and still haven't. Instead, it looks like honest governance improvement and better naval cooperation have done the trick.

It is particularly interesting how hard it is to get security cooperation among the affected states, particularly Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore. I know that there have been long-standing rivalries and even conflicts (with Malaysia once supporting terrorists in Indonesia, as I recall, and Singapore had been part of Malaysia until Malaysia kicked it out).

Also of interest to me is the extensive foreign support for anti-piracy operations, with Japan, US, India, and even China working together with the countries in the region. (The most notable exception is apparently Thailand, due in part to their own problems with their southern insurgency.)

Most importantly, though, I think it shows (once again) how non-state actors can have very detrimental effects on security, to the point that cooperating with states that have been traditional threats can be a good, good idea. Moreover, it suggests that we are on the right strategy for Somalia with the extensive, multilateral naval cooperation in the region, though there is some worry about the lack of governance within Somalia as well.

Reading Post VII

2009-10-20T19:21:00.000-07:00

This week, I attempted to do readings on security in Southeast Asia, specifically the peninsula south of China. However, I found very little about any country other than Thailand. I did read one article about the theoretical institutional balancing of some ASEAN countries, which was not really pertinent.

However, one reading was great:

Aurel Croussaint, "Unrest in Southern Thailand: Contours, Causes, and Consequences," Strategic Insights Vol 4 Issue 2 (Feb 25th).

I knew of the insurgency, and have eaten written some (mostly uninformed) things here about it. What I was unaware of was the degree that Thaksin, the deposed President, was responsible for this insurgency. The actions he took to destroy the power of an opposing political party in the south destroyed all the links between the Malay population there and the government, and he substituted the military (which had productive links) with the national police, who were apparently rather brutal and corrupt.

Of course, this article was written before the coup, which had more to do with economic policies and royalist support. But I get the feeling that the confusion and uproar of the coup has made it more difficult to reverse Thaksin's southern policies.

Also of interest is the further confirmation of David Kilcullen's work. He mentions this insurgency in his book, but we can actually see where the policies of Thailand have pushed people into a more radical identity. In particular, the traditional Islam of this region has been moderate and Sufi, but Salafi, reformist, "extreme" Islam seems to be taking hold. While AQ and JI don't seem to have a toehold yet, many are worried that Thailand (and others) are acting like it is. Here's hoping that AQ and JI don't, but it's a possibility if some kind of solution isn't found.

I was also completely unaware of the fact that these Malay provinces used to be far richer than the country as a whole, and now is quite a bit poorer. Maintaining overall development thus seems to be far more important than often realized.

I still don't understand the overall point of trying so hard to maintain 3 underdeveloped provinces that are not a major part of the economy of the country, have such a radically different ethnic/religious/national make-up, and is willing to fight to be out. But I feel I understand the overall conflict better.

China might yet get a carrier!

2009-10-20T11:48:00.001-07:00

It looks like China is finally working on getting the Varyag up and running, at least according to the New York Times. Though it seemed, at first, to be a silly notion for China to spend so much time and money developing an aircraft carrier, it makes more sense to me now. The country feels the need to project power into (at least) the Straits of Malacca, and preferably out to the "American defense belts".

What I worry about now is American/Western over-reaction. America has 11 carriers, all of which more than match this one. No other state has more than one carrier, and we also have more "mini-carriers" (VSTOLs) than all other states combined. One little carrier, particularly for a country without much of a navy otherwise, won't change that much.

More importantly, it won't really affect our security issues with China. A carrier is impractical for threatening its immediate neighbors, like Taiwan or Japan. Chinese missiles and planes can reach them already. If anything, it is merely a show of force. It's not something to worry overmuch about.

Reading Post Issues

2009-10-20T11:43:00.001-07:00

The readings post for last week was delayed due to schoolwork and a conference, and has now been delayed again due to the fact that the readings I picked out had nothing to do with security in Southeast Asia, despite being about the Thai coup and about "Southeast Asian balancing". Sorry for the delay.

SCO Meeting results in nothing in particular

2009-10-14T06:54:00.000-07:00

It should be obvious by now, but the SCO seems increasingly like a big show, rather than an actual threatening anti-American alliance.

China and Russia are actually suffering in recent months from the scourges the SCO was set up to deal with (extremism, separatism, and terrorism). Was the Uyghur situation discussed? Not at all. The North Caucasus problem? Nope.

The only concrete result of this meeting is that the Central Asian countries will get $10b in credit from China, to help combat the downturn. While I'm sure there is some kind of security aspect to that, it's very weak work from a hyped security summit.

Guys--if you want to balance against "hegemonism," you'll need something stronger than that.

Unpopular view

2009-10-12T13:51:00.000-07:00

But, really, at what point does it become not worthwhile to fight an insurgency anymore?

I'm not talking about Afghanistan here. Thailand has been fighting (off and on) an insurgency in its extreme southern provinces (which are Muslim and Malay, instead of Buddhist and Thai) for about a century now. Today, the security forces raided a school due to concerns about indoctrination into insurgency there.

And it seems they came up with something. There were in fact books on how to be suicide bombers, and they are interrogating 60 students. It could represent a real breakthrough, but I'm very skeptical.

It is said that insurgency is a long slog and very difficult to do. What does Thailand gain by keeping these three provinces? It is not like the separatism would spread to the rest of Thailand; these provinces are unique in many ways in Thailand. These are the only places that are majority Muslim or majority Malay. In fact, this is a former independent country that then-Siam annexed in the early 20th century. It is not like other provinces would be encouraged to do the same thing (unlike China).

I do not know what, other than pride, Thailand gets out of continuing to hold these provinces. However, no one ever wants to give up and accept that losing sometimes is less costly than winning.

Ho hum.

2009-10-12T13:48:00.000-07:00

North Korea is upping the temperature again. Nothing to see here.

Hearts and Minds in Xinjiang

2009-10-12T13:34:00.000-07:00

There is a reason why the rule of law is so precious in any country, even China. Sometime yesterday, 6 men were convicted and sentenced to death for their parts in the riots in Xinjiang in July. Of course, there are many people (particularly in the Muslim community in China) that are convinced it is a sham.

If the Chinese (and particularly the Chinese Uyghurs) had a real belief in the fairness of the justice system, it is likely that these riots never would have happened. But, because no one does, it is likely that the riots will resurface again, particularly after a quite likely flawed trial condemns more Uyghurs to death. If the people believed it was a fair trial, then they would be more likely to accept the outcome. Because they do not, more violence could result.

This is the problem with the Chinese approach on so many fronts. They have been trying to build up soft power in many parts of the world (especially with the Confucian centers that have been opened around the world), they still ignore many of the actual roots of soft power, even with their own citizens. This is not a way to build legitimacy; it merely erodes it further. (The same happens when they lash out against the Dalai Lama for going to give religious care to Taiwanese.)

Without fixing these problems of legitimacy, the Chinese will never end the general violence and distrust in Xinjiang.

Reading Post VI

2009-10-08T04:33:00.001-07:00

This week, the topic is Indonesia. I will confess, I know a lot less about Indonesia than I do the other countries surveyed so far. My academic focus has long been Northeast Asia (specifically the Chinas and the Koreas), and so the rest of the course will involve a lot more eye-opening for me.

The readings this week are:

UNISCI Discussion Papers, October 2007

McElhatton, Emmet "Guerrilla Warfare and the Indonesian Strategic Psyche", Small Wars Journal

The discussion papers focused squarely on the Indonesian military reformation that has taken place in the last decade as Indonesia moved from authoritarianism to democracy. In the authoritarian period, the military was used primarily as a means of social control and regime legitimacy. Moreover, military officers held most of the commanding positions in the government (including for most of the period the Presidency, after General Suharto overthrew Sukarno in a coup.)

Because of the size and its designation as the world's "largest Muslim country," I assumed that Indonesia had a military commensurate with its status. However, apparently at this point Indonesia spends less than 1% of GDP on its military, and many military leaders consider it far too small to defend the country (and particularly all of the important waterways in the country). The military in total has less than 400,000 troops, the vast majority of which are ground troops. This boggles my mind, as an island chain would seem to need a navy far more.

However, when looking into the internal workings of Indonesia, it begins to make more sense. The overriding threat to Indonesian sovereignty does not lie in the pirates in the waters, or even in naval attack by neighboring states. Instead, it is insurgency, guerrilla warfare, and terrorism that concerns the defense department of Indonesia, though it seems that this does not worry the policy makers as much as the possibility of the military attempting to take back its old role as political masters.

There is a good chance that overall defense spending will increase, if only to increase professionalism and to decrease the military's reliance on military-owned companies. These companies are largely seen as an obstacle to a truly professional military and a potential for extreme corruption. The very idea boggled my mind when I first saw it, for that very reason.

The last major topic of the discussion papers was the war on terrorism within Indonesia, with strong disagreement about how that war should be prosecuted. Two writers (Adrianus Harsawaskita and Evan A. Laksmana) expressed strong skepticism that the military was fighting terrorism for any reason other than as a pretext for re-establishing some of the power it had given up in the last decade. Robert Eryanto Tumanggor instead pushes for more democratization and more respect for legal rights as a partial method toward resolving the grievances that lead to terrorism. Lastly, Sapto Waluyo echoes Tumanggor, but stresses that the problems are systemic to the government, and require diligent reform.

The other piece (from Small Wars Journal) was much more focused on the problem of guerrilla warfare in Indonesia, a country that was both founded on guerrilla warfare and has fought more COIN campaigns than most. I was impressed that one of the founders of the Indonesian state wrote not only a handbook to guerrilla warfare (like Mao and Giap both have), but also within that same book a COIN manual. I believe that may better show the difference between Indonesia and other countries in the region. Because Indonesia is an amalgamation of many cultures and ethnic groups, the legitimacy of the regime is always in much more danger than the regimes in Japan, Korea, China, or Vietnam. Indonesia is a modern invention, born (mostly) out of colonialism, and as such faces dangers quite different from its neighbors. Moreover, these dangers compound each other; a lack of legitimacy fuels terrorism, which fuels military overreach, which lowers legitimacy further. With all of this in mind, it is remarkable that Indonesia has managed to achieve the degree of stability that it has.

Oh, and speaking of Taiwan...

2009-10-08T04:27:00.000-07:00

Just for the coolness factor:

I do believe this would be the ultimate deterrent against any action across the Strait.

(h/t War is Boring)

China/Taiwan News

2009-10-08T04:17:00.000-07:00

Apparently, Taiwan is working on an littoral warship of its own. I find it interesting that so many countries are recognizing the importance of the "near coast" waters. Once upon a time, those were the only ones every contested; the ability to fight in blue-water is a fairly new development. And yet almost all of our tech is devoted to fighting in the blue-water. Moreover, for a country like Taiwan, all of the fighting it has to worry about will be in the Taiwan Strait. It needs something small and fast that can disrupt amphibious assault ships, and this (which is stealthy) could fit that bill.

On the other hand, Taiwan may not have to worry about China as much as previously thought. China looks like it may have its hands full with AQ soon. It is almost heartening to see that AQ is starting to realize that the US is not, in fact, the greatest oppressor of Muslims world-wide. I would suggest that the US help China in this fight, but first China needs to actually reform its treatment of the Uyghurs and its rule of Xinjiang in general. (I find it fascinating that Tibet is constantly labeled a "non-self-ruled territory" or such by groups like Freedom House, but Xinjiang/Turkestan is always ignored.) It is interesting to me the way that globalization is causing imperial difficulties for a mere rising power like China, but between attacks by AQIM in Algeria, perennial trouble across the strait, and now the threat of pan-Islamism in its northwest corner, it seems to be happening.

China and North Korea

2009-10-05T06:49:00.000-07:00

There has been a lot of activity in Northeast Asia this past weekend, and I've been trying to process it all.

1) 60th anniversary PRC military parade: As I think the pictures here show, it is definitely the missile age. Every land picture is of some kind of mobile missile system. I've seen a few other pictures with military men and women marching, and even one of tanks, but all of the new equipment being shown off is missile-related. Even many of the Naval shots are of PLAN vessels firing missiles.

2) I agree with the general consensus that Wen Jiabao's visit to North Korea shows how serious China is about maintaining relations with North Korea, come what may. However, it must be kept in mind that China (even more so than South Korea) is in no position to handle the flood of migrants who will end up in China should the DPRK collapse. I am still not convinced of the strength of the regime there. I do hope, however, that something productive can come from the talks there.

3) I'm fascinated by the idea of "forced repatriation," particularly as it was the sticking point in the negotiations at the end of the Korean War. We're seeing it again in Korea. Recently, 11 people managed to take a boat and sail to South Korea, and the North is demanding that South Korea return them. South Korea has refused to force them back to North Korea, and I support that refusal. In fact, all developed countries who believe (even in theory) in freedom of movement should support that move. Even while many countries have strict anti-immigration laws, they all agree that no one should be forced to live in a country they hate. This is codified in US law (the Jackson-Vanik amendment), and respected by most countries. If I may be all constructivist for a second, this is not a norm that should be undermined. More interesting, however, if why North Korea would want them back. Obviously, they broke DPRK law by leaving, and would not be allowed with the rest of the population. (I am certain that telling the other North Koreans about what the South is really like is not something Kim and co. want.) I'm assuming the point it to deter anyone else from leaving as well, or to coerce other countries into making it harder for people to leave. However, it's much likelier just to further inflame opinion against the DPRK. Perhaps the strategic thinking is that world opinion cannot really go any lower, but it still seems a waste of international power and attention to try to force the return of these defectors.

Linked, tangentially, to the last post

2009-10-01T11:57:00.000-07:00

Apparently, the US is going to be engaging in talks with Burma/Myanmar as well as Iran. If North Korea is the worst, most evil regime on the planet today (and the evidence, based on deaths and malnutrition today is pretty good), Burma might well be the second. The response to both the protesting monks two years ago and the cyclone last year show that the regime has no care for the lives of its citizens. (I am willing to grant that Sudan should also be in the competition up here.)

And yet, again, isolation of the country has done no good, and instead made the people poorer. Moreover, it's fed into a paranoia that prevents any real progress in Burma. I am not for an instant pretending that engagement with Burma will cause it to become a democratic wonderland. It won't. I'm not pretending that it will cause the release of Kyi. It won't.

But neither will continued sanctions and isolation. It hasn't worked, and it won't work. (I hesitate to say that it never works, but I've yet to see an example of utterly isolating a country from the international community causing the regime there to do anything other than double down.) Sanctions are most effective against a country that doesn't think it will have future conflict with you. That does not sound like the US-Burmese relationship.

At the very least, opening up dialogue allows for some movement towards making the lives of the Burmese people better in some objective way. Nothing needs to be given away to open up discussion.

Makes the heart bleed

2009-09-30T21:22:00.000-07:00

I am willing to accept the fact that I am, in fact, a bleeding heart liberal. There are limits to this (including famous people who get away with heinous crimes and live in "exile" more comfortable than the majority of people's lives...), but a story like this about reunions between North and South Koreans really tugs at the heart strings.

In short, South Koreans going to reunions with siblings in the North are regretting having done so. These are people who haven't seen their siblings since prior to the Korean War, but what they saw and heard was so shocking that it has basically traumatized them. We read about the North Korean famine, but there are seldom visuals, which are so necessary in today's instant world. These South Koreans, many of whom are quite prosperous, are hurt to see their family members, the people they grew up with, literally starving.

It doesn't end there. The South Koreans bring gifts of food and money for their northern family members, only to have a large percentage of it taken by the DPRK, the very state responsible for the horrible condition of those family members. On top of that...they here nothing but praise for that state from their family members. We talk of North Korean brainwashing, but when a starving person praises the very people who have made them starve, it is truly mind-boggling.

And yet. And yet. Though my heart bleeds, and I want to cry for them, I know there is nothing to be done. There is nothing that the international community can do, which is a hard lesson for many to take. The US is often said to be guilty of making conflicts worse and ignoring the ones that could be helped, but, despite the rather horrific nature of the violence and human rights abuses inherent in the North Korean regime, it has wisely avoided attempts to change things there. Because the only outside change would be worse.

I know this is old news. I know that nothing I am writing has not been written a thousand times before. But there is little as galling as seeing something so monstrously evil and not have any way to deal with it. And even worse, the only ways to alleviate the pain at all involve making things easier for the horrendous regime that has caused it all.

Reading Post V

2009-09-30T09:51:00.001-07:00

This week: Korea.

More readings than most this week, as I read an entire journal issue devoted to the North Korean issue as well as several posts on "Arms Control Today" about the same thing. As always:

Asian Perspective - Volume 32 - Number 4 - 2008 Special issue on North Korea and Regional Security Guest Editor: Mark J. Valencia

Gilbert Rozman and Shin-Wha Lee, Unraveling the Japan-South Korea ‘Virtual Alliance’: Populism and Historical Revisionism in the Face of Conflicting Regional Strategies, Asian Survey, September/October 2006.

Arms Control Today, North Korea Nuclear Test Focus , November 2006.

Because the Rozman and Lee piece does not focus on the North Korean nuclearization issue directly, but instead is concerned with the ROK-Japan relationship, I will start with it. I found it very helpful, because all too often we in the US focus on our own bilateral relationships at the expense of the relationships between our allies. It does not shock me that rising nationalism in both countries led to difficulties between the two, but it essential for the US to do what it can to build up the ties between South Korea and Japan.

At the same time, things have changed dramatically from the time of this article. The article came out at roughly the same time as the nuclear test by North Korea, which is not referenced, and there is a more conservative government in South Korea now along with a brand new government in Japan as well. The new government has made some sounds about being less reliant on the US and reaching out to the governments in the region, and this would be a great opportunity. While (apparently) the Japanese Constitution prevents Japan from having any official allies other than the US, the recent uptick in aggressive action by North Korea shows the need for coordination and cooperation between Japan and South Korea. Both have a history of being hit by small scale North Korean aggression (and in particular abductions of their citizens).

The Arms Control Association readings were very technical and gave a good overview of the problems with the North Korean tests, along with a timeline and technical analysis. As a collection of mostly factual pieces, it is difficult to really give a reaction However, much of what was in it were things I already knew, except for the number of warning given by North Korea and China prior to the test. However, the fact that all of this was written 3 years ago again demonstrates the fact that it is pretty unlikely that North Korea will denuclearize at this point. It's been very rare for any country to give up nukes, and no country that has developed nukes of their own have given them up. (Many states have given up nuclear programs, but only FSUs have actually given up nuclear weapons, and those were old Soviet weapons.)

The issue of Asian Perspective helps to put the nuclear weapons issue into more context, with great info on the Six Party Talks. While many of the writers see great potential for the expansion of the Six Party Talks into a forum for regional issues, I find myself rather skeptical. The Six Party Talks have not accomplished any of its original goals, such as ending the North Korean nuclear issue.

I agree, however, with several of the writers who suggest that the US make some unilateral concessions to North Korea, in order to build confidence and trust. Of course, by "concessions" we mean be willing to make a real peace treaty and agree that we won't invade them for no good reason. These are things that just about every other country can take for granted, and Americans like to think that everyone should just know about us anyway. If we can't agree to not invade North Korea, then of course they are going to be paranoid and want every weapon possible to fight us off. Maybe they wouldn't believe us if we made the commitment, but they're not going to believe anything from us if we DON'T make that commitment.

I think it's become obvious that a strict militaristic, bombastic approach to foreign policy is pretty much bankrupt. Moreover, I don't want to make the case that the US should forswear the right to use military power abroad; that would never fly, and there are cases where it is necessary. But a limited security agreement, in which the US will not seek to overthrow the DPRK regime and that the US will not use force against the DPRK without some kind of threat or international consensus, would at least be a start. It will go further than additional sanctions, esp. as a typical Drezner analysis would show only small concessions.

Indonesian stability

2009-09-29T02:30:00.000-07:00

Sam Abrams at War is Boring has something up arguing that Indonesia is less stable than we think. I'll admit that I was shocked to hear anyone thought that Indonesia is stable at all. As part of the overall American problem of only tuning into news when it pops up, I always think of Indonesia as a place of terrorism and secession.

However, as the world's largest Muslim country and one situated right on one of the most used sea-lanes in the world, we should be worried about instability and violence in the country. I'm not sure if the US could do anything to help legitimize the governmental system (it's a democracy after all!), but it wouldn't hurt to do so.

The Communist Club loses another member...

2009-09-28T09:56:00.000-07:00

It was announced today that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is no longer a Communist country. The constitution has been amended, and Communism has been completely purged in deference to the "military-first" ideology of Kim Jong-il. Moreover, Kim's power has been increased, and he is now Supreme Leader (and not just "Dear Leader").

Does this actually mean anything? I'm not at all sure. It is hard to get any kind of objective analysis on what is going on inside North Korea--everything that is available is pure conjecture. My guess is that it is merely trying to prop up the overall image of Kim prior to his death, to insure more legitimacy for his third son, who is expected to succeed him.

In more substantive NORK news, the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (probably China's #2 government official, after Hu Jintao) will be going to Pyongyang soon. It is thought that this meeting will include the announcement of progress on the nuclear talks. On the other hand, I think it's entirely possible that it will give Wen the chance to try to talk sense into Kim. I think we'll just have to see.

But I'm also curious as to how China feels about North Korea's renouncement of Communism. Not that China is really Communist anymore, but it is still technically Communist. I think China is pragmatic enough to ignore it, but it is still a touch vexing.

Reading Post IV

2009-09-27T06:55:00.000-07:00

This past week, I tackled the readings on Japan. I read the following:

Toshi Yoshihara and James R. Holmes, Japanese Maritime Thought: If Not Mahan, Who? Naval War College Review, Summer 2006

“New Fighting Power!” Richard J. Samuels, Japan’s Growing Maritime Capabilities and East Asian Security International security [0162-2889] Samuels yr:2007 vol:32 iss:3 pg:84 -112

"Japan's security policy: from a peace state to an international state" Singh, Bhubhindar The Pacific Review, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 303-325, July 2008

Wu Xinbo, “The end of the Siler Lining: A Chinese View of the US-Japan Alliance,” Washington Quarterly 29:1 (119-130)

The first two were both about Japanese naval forces, and so I'll tackle them together.

Yoshihara, Holmes, Samuels: Yoshihara and Holmes seem particularly worried about a lack of strategic focus for the Maritime Self-Defense Force, the name for the modern Japanese navy. They write that the Japanese seem to have decided to focus on ways to complement the US Navy, rather than field their own, independent naval force. They point out that China is building a Navy along Mahanian lines, and cites this as a reason for Japan to go back to thinking about grand strategy and the build-up of its own navy. They also state (without much support) that relying on the American security guarantee is dangerous, and that Japan needs a naval force capable of defending the country's interests on its own.

I do not understand this line of thinking, either for Japan or for Western Europe. (In South Korea's case, with a presumably implacable enemy across a very short DMZ, it makes much more sense.) There is more to security and prosperity than the military, and relying on the US (and possibly even free-loading on the US) provides so many benefits, it makes sense to tailor your force to what can boost the US rather than duplicate its efforts. If the US tried to make its force a mini-USN, it will not contribute much to any hypothetical war, since the US has much more of any given piece of equipment. Making instead the things that the US needs (like minesweepers) strikes me as a perfectly intelligent strategic move.

I'm also skeptical of the near idolatry of "grand theorists" at work in this piece. Why do the Japanese need to find one person and apply his theory to the overall structure of naval composition? Why is a pragmatic, ad hoc process not acceptable? (And, if you did decide to use one theorist as the backbone for your force structure, would you want to announce that fact? Would it give up too much information about likely responses?)

I find the Samuels piece much more interesting. It shows how the Japanese have managed to beef up their military without breaking their own Constitution or self-imposed limits, by instead creating what may be the world's greatest Coast Guard. The Japanese Coast Guard (JCG) has taken on many of the missions of normal navies, such as reinforcing claims of sovereignty to dispute islands. It has also become a large part of Japan's soft power, being deployed in emergencies and natural disasters.

I found it particularly interesting that the JCG was explicitly modeled on the USCG. They are both technically civilian agencies, despite having uniformed personnel and military missions. The USCG is, in fact, a stronger navy than many state navies, including Canada's. The JCG is seeking the same kind of strength, without actually raising the military budget and upsetting Japan's neighbors.

Most importantly, though, it shows that (even if Japan lacks a "central thinker") it is obvious that the Japanese leaders are paying careful attention to maritime issues while still trying to avoid ruffling feathers. This is a much better approach than that put forward by Yoshihara and Holmes, who are focusing too much on grand strategic theories and not enough on the actual position that Japan is in. Japan is a small island chain with a history that leads to distrust. Announcing the creation of a giant, fully independent navy would hurt its economics; having a niche military attached to the world's strongest, along with a Coast Guard able to do what is necessary to defend the country is a better idea.

Wu: This thinking leads naturally to the Wu Xinbo piece. Unfortunately, Japan may be running into trouble with China anyway. According to Wu, China is increasingly worried about a resurgent Japanese military, and sees the US as the one instigating this increase in Japanese power. China has long viewed the US alliance as the major factor keeping Japanese military power low, but now the US has started pushing Japan to increase its military power instead. From the US perspective, this is just to end the Japanese "free-ride" on the US, but it is incredibly nerve-wracking for the Chinese. Besides the historical issues (like World War 2), there is a fear that Japan and the US are trying to encircle China and keep it from taking its "rightful place" on the world stage.

Interestingly, the former Japanese colony of Taiwan has been included in the overall defense planning of Japan, with some vague ideas about defending the island from a mainland attack. This obviously infuriates China (which has long maintained that Taiwan is an essential part of China that has long been the target of various other powers). That the overall security system in East Asia is basically made up of various American bilateral security guarantees (to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, etc.) that explicitly leaves China out (rather than the preferred multilateral one with China as a major player) continues to imply all sorts of maneuvering against China.

The overall suggestion of the article is, in short, for Japan and the US to be more inclusive of China, and to not make threatening statements about Chinese capabilities and intentions. While it is hard to disagree with this notion, it overlooks the various reasons why people are distrustful of China. It is interesting that this writer made the same mistakes that so many American writers do. It assumes that the international readers will automatically assume the benevolent intentions of the large power with all the military hardware.

The last piece, by Singh, is a very constructivist take on the overall strengthening of the Japanese military. Singh traces a few different strains in Japanese "identity", particularly the ideas of Japan as a "peace state", a "normal state", and an "international state". It provided a fascinating history of Japanese efforts to rearm, and made a good case that today's Japan is doing so at least in part to live up to its responsibilities as an "international state", since important states do things like respond to tragedies and help with peacekeeping.

Korean Reunification

2009-09-22T09:43:00.000-07:00

Matthew Yglesias posted yesterday about how difficult reunification was for Germany, and why it will be even worse for Korea should it occur.

What this makes me think of most of all is the dilemmas that will be facing the government of South Korea if the DPRK ever collapses. The DPRK is much poorer and more backwards than the GDR ever was. They’ve been separated for longer. South Korea is smaller relative to North Korea than West Germany was to East Germany. And South Korea is also poorer than West Germany. All told, I think there’s ample reason to believe that the South couldn’t really manage a reunification process. Which is something their government seems to realize without quite admitting—their official policy is reunification, but in practice they fear a DPRK collapse. And they’re right to fear it. But political debates about North Korea policy aside, the fact of the matter is that that horrible regime can’t last forever. And I think it would make sense for a broader international community to start thinking about what we can do to support a transition process that’s going to be too big a task for South Korea to shoulder on its own.

This is obviously correct (or at least the conventional wisdom). But this leads to further questions about the North Korean regime and their goals. Do they plan on reunifying the country by force? It has long been said to be the case, and some of the evidence from the '90s would suggest they were still planning that even then.

However, it's impossible to tell the overall plans of the North Korean government. They occasionally "turn up the crazy" with regards to South Korea (such as abducting the fishermen who accidentally crossed the border) but there has not been any real incursion in some time.

Any remotely sane observer in North Korea would have to notice that the utter failure of their experiment in Stalinism is much more likely than any reunification on the North's terms. This then should lead to a "status quo" desire by the regime. So, what accounts for the various provocations that do erupt occasionally, such as the nuclear program or the kidnappings?

Some would just dismiss North Korea, or just Kim Jong-il, as crazy. It's easy to do, and doing so then justifies any possible militaristic posture, because "they're so crazy they could do anything!" However, this ends up being pretty absurd.

On the other hand, there is always the mirroring problem, where those studying the DPRK might be too ready to impart our own thinking on them. However, it really seems to me that there is some kind of overall method to the madness (much like there was a theory behind Nixon's "madman theory").

I wonder if American intelligence has an insight that those of us in the Open Source world are lacking. I hope so.

Thailand

2009-09-22T04:43:00.000-07:00

Most Americans snicker when they think of Thailand. Yes, there is a culture of complete abandon in some parts, and yes it may well be the most trans-friendly culture on the planet (which is AWESOME, not worthy of snickering.)

At the same time, close to Malaysia, you have this:

Thailand has been fighting an insurgency for a long time, but since 2004 it seems to be losing. I knew about this insurgency, but I had assumed that the people behind it had done the straight-forward thing of putting forth demands and offering an end to the violence if those demands were met.

Apparently not. Apparently experts have only been able to guess at what is causing the increase in fighting, and the guess is based on the fact that Buddhists and "Buddhist-collaborators" are the ones being bombed. This can make it extremely difficult to engage in any kind of negotiation.

At the same time, apparently the Thai military is not a legitimate partner for dialogue. They are, at the very least, not engaging in "population centric warfare". Extrajudicial killings, torture and "disappearances" have all been reported, and now the Muslim population refuses to come to the authorities with problems, even as a mosque was blown up.

This won't affect Thailand's reputation as a tourist hotspot. This insurgency is still confined to a small part of the long southern tail of the country. But it's still troubling.

Readings Post IIIb

2009-09-16T05:39:00.001-07:00

Today, I'm tackling the rest of the readings for this week. Those are:

Michael A. Glosny, “Strangulation from the Sea? A PRC Submarine Blockade of Taiwan,” International Security, Vol. 28, No. 4 (Spring 2004), pp. 125-160

Andrew Erickson and Andrew Wilson, “China’s Aircraft Carrier Dilemma” Naval War College Review, Autumn 2006.

Xu Qi, Maritime Geostrategy and the Development of the Chinese Navy in the Early Twenty-First Century, Naval War College Review, Autumn 2006

Starting with Glosny: In analyzing a PRC blockade of Taiwan, I find it odd that he completely leaves the US out of the picture. It seems to be the most guaranteed way to get the US into the war, particularly if American shipping is attacked. However, I have to support his analysis of Taiwanese will. In fact, he may even understate the case--while he points out many factors that suggest that the Taiwanese would not be as willing to stand up to coercive punishment as past states, he 1) never gives even one state that has given in to coercive punishment and 2) I'm not certain of some of his analysis of "weaknesses" in Taiwanese will. In particular, I think he overstates the division within Taiwan today between those who see themselves as Chinese and those who see themselves as Taiwanese.

However, I found his restatement of the reason for "strategic ambiguity" interesting. He doesn't call it that, and again, he mostly ignores the role of the US, but he explicitly says that if Taiwan feels "safe" it might take actions that would provoke an attack by China, without being ready for it. He spends a great deal of time saying that Taiwan should be able to survive a blockade, just to add that it still shouldn't fee "safe." This leads me to a question: Is it better for Taiwan to feel safe, and possibly threaten independence, or is it better for Taiwan to feel vulnerable, and have them buy lots of extra weapons, causing the arms race to ratchet up more? (Of course, from the US perspective, the second also has the benefit of bringing money to the US.)

One other thing it shows, though, is the likely limit of a submarine-centric approach to naval power. I believe this is probably why the Chinese have spent so much money on upgrading their missile power as well, in order to have two legs to stand on. Submarines alone, while useful to Germany, were not enough. This leads to discussions on making a carrier.

Erickson: This paper focuses on Chinese plans for building/buying/retrofitting an air craft carrier of some form. The single thing I found most fascinating from this piece is the idea of an aircraft carrier as a means of building/projecting soft power. I was joking recently about a Northrop Grumman ad that billed an aircraft carrier as the "world's most effective diplomat," but apparently China has taken that to heart.

However, I still call bullshit on this being subtle or tactful.

However, I can't help but agree that, as a force projection tool, the massive aircraft carrier we usually think of still doesn't have the advantages for China that the submarine does. As the article states, they are big and easy to hit. I think it is far smarter for China to continue its quest to develop the anti-carrier missile.

On the other hand, I can see definite uses for a little helicopter carrier, if the Chinese can get their helicopter forces up to speed. Helicopters have proven very capable against pirates, something that is important for Chinese shipping through the Straits of Malacca. Also, somehow it seems that helicopters can actually benefit a submarine based Navy. I didn't quite follow how, but I'll accept it.

Moreover, as shown above, a submarine based navy will not accomplish everything the Chinese might want anyway. They need some balance to their force, which some kind of force-projection surface fleet would provide. If nothing else, since a submarine blockade of Taiwan isn't practical, and nor is an invasion, China must keep working to come up with some other way of handling a declaration of independence.

Xu Qi: This article is basically just calling for China to focus its attention and power on the maritime area. There is a repetition of old claims of American hegemonism (which are likely true) and American "encirclement" of China, at least navally. I have to agree, however, that without some care taken for protecting their naval power, they will become reliant on the US ability to police the high seas. Now, this has been a great deal for the European powers, but I know that China is not one to give up any sovereignty for any reason.

North Korea vs Pirates!

2009-09-15T19:41:00.001-07:00

I almost don't know who to root for here, but North Korean sailors managed to use Molotov cocktails to fight off a pirate ship. 10 pirates came up in speedboats with RPGs and automatic weapons, while the DPRK ship was stopped due to engine trouble. They got the engine up though, and fired back with molotovs.

While I dislike the DPRK, it's pretty damned cool that they used improvised weapons to fight off the pirates.

Seriously...would you use the first against the second?

Readings Post IIIa

2009-09-15T11:02:00.000-07:00

I'm going to break up the readings post this week, because the RAND report is so long and important that I want to give it a post of its own. The report in question can be found here.

I should add that, while I'm always a little skeptical of these kinds of mathematical studies, I also love them. I'm skeptical that so much can be reduced to numbers like this; at the same time, I think that personal bias probably comes into it less. So, in the end, probably a wash.

This report is basically an update of one from 2000, where the RAND corporation looked at the likelihood of Chinese success in attacking Taiwan. In 2000, it looked like a cinch for Taiwan. The PLAN did not have the amphibious ships, and the PLAAF and PLANAF didn't have the planes.

Today, however, China still doesn't have the greatest planes, but it does have PLENTY of missiles. Enough, according to these authors, to at least destroy Taiwanese runways, and probably enough to destroy most of the SAMs. This would give China uncontested air superiority, even if the US were to get involved on Taiwan's side.

On the other hand, the real dread scenario of a Chinese amphibious invasion would, very likely, fail miserably, if the Taiwanese set up a proper defense. There are not many places to put ashore on Taiwan, and the Taiwanese military would be able to assemble great numbers of fighters and anti-ship missiles where needed. The authors suggest setting up a zone defense, with attacks starting on ships at sea with the modern version of Exocets, and moving up to pitched defenses at the end. It would not take too many missiles from Taiwan to degrade the Chinese sealift capacity sufficiently to stop any invasion.

Also, the authors are right to point out that, even if the Chinese achieve air superiority, they are still unlikely to be able to inflict the kind of air pounding that many other states have already suffered. And airpower alone is (despite what the worst-case scenario suggests to the authors) never enough to induce capitulation.

If it had been, this war would have ended a little differently...

There is a great deal of mathematical and game-theoretic jargon in the piece, most of which I can't follow. But the fact that the situation has gone from "easy Taiwan wins" to "probably Taiwan can keep China out, at great cost" is a major change in the system. Granted, it's not enough to make me worry that China will invade Taiwan, but it's enough to change the calculus involved.

A bigger issue is brought up at the very end of the entire analysis. The study disputes the American ability to maintain itself as the guarantor of Taiwanese security, and it does so by striking a parallel with Cuba and the USSR. They suggest that the only reason why Cuba was able to be protected by the USSR is because it was made part of the global, nuclear confrontation, and that without doing so, the US may not be able to continue to defend Taiwan. They do not go so far as to say the US should make the Taiwan issue the beginning of a ring around China, or that the US should threaten nuclear war over any kind of attack on China, but instead say this may be the only way for the US to preserve hegemony in East Asia in general.

This part is possibly the most troubling, particularly because they devote about two paragraphs to what seems a nightmare scenario, and then drop it entirely. They fully acknolwedge that China has been peaceful up until now, and has sought to expand within the liberal international order. The very idea of starting a Cold War and containment seems absolutely ludicrous. Fortunately, they don't go that far--they instead suggest that the US help Taiwan build up an ability to survive air assault and construct an anti-amphibious assault doctrine. This involves selling them anti-ship missiles (probably like the kind we are afraid China is developing).

It also involves building up "deterrent capability" in East Asia, by hardening bases in Japan and South Korea. Unfortunately, the authors ignore all security paradox problems with this. In the end, outside of the immediate sphere of Taiwanese defense (where their ideas seem pretty logical), they are calling for a strong build-up guaranteed to worry Chinese leaders and possibly push them away from all efforts to enmesh them in the international order.

In the end, while the analysis of likely outcomes of the actual war seem solid, their recomendations beyond that seem overly pessimistic.

China in Iraq

2009-09-15T05:09:00.000-07:00

China is training mine sweepers in both Iraq and Afghanistan, yet more evidence of China being part of the international order. But, more interestingly, China also has an oil well in Iraq, run by CNPC. CNPC already has guards there, but sabotage and destruction have still been a problem.

The article doesn't go into details about why they are having such trouble, just noting a lack of infrastructure and development near the wells, but I think it is important to remember that China has an image problem in many parts of the Muslim world. While that image is better than the US has, it should be remembered that AQIM recently declared war on China for the rioting in Xinjiang, and has even attacked Chinese workers in North Africa.

China is starting to have its own "colonialism" problem, which I am certain puzzles the Chinese leadership to no end. They are used to being the anti-colonialists; to now be called colonialists themselves must be odd. But it's a fact in many parts of the world, including now Iraq.

Tire tariffs and Chinese WTO suit

2009-09-15T04:57:00.001-07:00

I'm not attempting to be contrarian, but I see one major shining silver lining in this whole tire tariff thing. I'm not a fan of tariffs, and I haven't seen a single reason why the US is imposing this tariff.

However, China is responding, not with blistering denunciations and unilateral reprisal, but by instead taking us to court in the WTO.

This is a great thing. In the past, Chinese leaders has often acted like the US was betraying China by taking them to the WTO for trade disputes. This means that China may be instead internalizing the rules of the international order. It can be hoped that, if Chinese leaders are willing to act within the rules on trade, they may also do so in other fields. At the very least, it gives the China optimists more to go by.

Of course, the one thing no one wants is a return to "beggar-thy-neighbor"ism and (from what I can tell) I hope China succeeds in getting the tarriff overturned. In fact, getting the tariff overturned will help strengthen China's faith in the WTO. I think that will be a bigger win than whatever mixed effects the actual tariff will have.

Today's date and what-not...

2009-09-11T05:45:00.000-07:00

I think Matthew Yglesias said it best...

It still rankles—a lot—that Osama bin Laden is still out there. When the attacks happened, and in the days and weeks that followed, lots of notions flew through my mind, most of them wild and fanciful or flat-out insane. But it genuinely never occurred to me to that the main architect of the attacks would still be at large eight years later.

I was fortunate that I didn't lose anyone close to me in the attack. However, a close friend's father worked in the Pentagon, and while he was safe, I remember the dread and worry until I found out. (Obviously, this worry and dread were far worse for her than me, but I was still distinctly worried for her.) I was also an RA in my college dorm at the time, at a school with a high percentage of people from DC and NYC.

But we also heard tons of rumors, about bombs in the Cleveland Airport or warships in the Hudson/Potomac/Mississippi/Ohio river. None of these were true; most were probably crazy. But they were believable that day. Anything was.

Except, perhaps, what was to actually come. A war would come, certainly, even though many of those I went to school with reflexively opposed any use of American military. But that we would, while still fighting a war in Afghanistan go on to fight a country that had nothing to do with the attacks, diverting most of our attention, men, and material, was unthinkable. That we would spend 8 years attempting to put a state together in Afghanistan was also unthinkable.

And that Osama bin Laden would still be free was completely unthinkable.

Central Asia is not a focus of this blog. I'm not an Afghanistan expert, nor an expert on Islam. But, today, it bears thinking and writing about.

I'm sorry to see...

2009-09-11T05:33:00.000-07:00

that former Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian has been sentenced to life in prison. From a security standpoint, it probably makes the whole region far more secure (if only because it is certain to please and placate China), and from all the evidence it does appear that he is an utter crook.

But at the same time Chen and Chen's administration was one of the first willing to lay out the plain truth of Taiwan's situation, and acknowledge that Taiwan is not part of China. I found so many of his little steps (all of which, admittedly, tweaked China far more than was sensible) kind of endearing. Also, he was willing to publicly criticize Chiang Kai-shek, and even remove pictures of him. Chiang Kai-shek was a fascist, and does not deserve the good reputation he has in many parts of the world (including the US), and I can also think of many American politicians who have undeservedly heroic reputations.

Chen is appealing, and many international organizations say that his trial wasn't entirely fair. I'm hoping that justice gets served, especially because it is a good sign to broadcast to the world that even ex-President's can be held accountable for breaking the law. But my soft spot for Chen will continue.

Readings Post II

2009-09-10T10:04:00.000-07:00

Today's readings all have to do with the growth of China's military and its meaning for the international system. Next week will focus specifically on China's relationship to Taiwan, but even though my readings today also touched on that issue, it's not the focus.

My readings today were: What China Will Want: The Future Intentions of a Rising Power Jeffrey W. Legro

China, Xinjiang, and the Transnational Security of Central Asia

Kerr, David; Swinton, Laura C Critical Asian Studies, vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 89-112, Mar. 2008

Long Shot and Short Hit: China as a Military Power and Its Implications for the USA and Taiwan, Wei-chin Lee Journal of Asian and African Studies 2008; 43; 523

David M. Lampton, “The Faces of Chinese Power” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2007

Taking them one at a time:

1) Legro: I found this article a useful antidote to the too-common refrains of both "China just want to make money!" and "China wants to rule the world!". The basic thesis is simply that what China wants right now is less important than what China will want as it continues its growth, and that what China will want is going to be contingent on what kind of results they get from the actions they take. He points out that in just the last two hundred years the world has seen China go from "isolationist" to "intergrationist" to "revisionist" and back to "integrationist."

Four faces of Chinese leadership

Legro goes on to say that Chinese intentions are made by the same analytical and psychological processes that all states go by. Right now, China is strongly intergrating into the international system, supporting most of the world's institutions and even contributing to international peacekeeping forces.

Legro states that, fortunately, as long as things go well for China this is likely to continue. He is particularly clear that, contra realism, it is not power that is likely to change the intentions and preferences of Chinese leadership, but anythign that suggests that the current integrationist approach is not working. That is, anything that causes China to stop accumulating power could be seen as proof that the integrationist approach is fundamentally misguided. Even this will require some other factors as well, however.

On the other hand, he is clear that Chinese intentions could change anyway, and that the US (and Western powers in general) should support pro-integration forces within China and not take steps to alienate them. I was impressed to see Legro specifically mention the Versailles Treaty that ended World War I, that is seen by China has having rewarded Chinese participation in World War I by giving German concessions in China...to Japan.

However, he is horribly vague on what this means. He points to US and UK efforts to promote internationalism, even in the aftermath of WWI, but he doesn't apply it to the Chinese context. In the end, this is a fascinating but frustrating theoretical look at preferences, without much actual help. The one exception to this is that he explicitly suggests not trying to "hedge" with China by building up military power in the area, at least without making sure that this would not just boost the ideological position of the hardliners.

Kerr and Swinton: I've long been fascinated with Muslim China, especially after a trip to Xi'an in my undergraduate years. I've not yet made it Xinjiang, but I try to read up on it as much as possible. I was therefore really looking forward to this piece, especially as China's relationship with Central Asia is often overlooked in favor of its relationships with the greater powers of East Asia and the US. While we often define "Central Asia" as just the former Soviet Muslim republics, it really extends well into China:

However, this reading was actually very dry and theoretical. There were still some interesting ideas. In particular, it is interesting to see how Chinese state identity plays deeply into the issues with Xinjiang and Chinese Central Asia. The players in China that want to play up that China is a multi-ethnic, multi-national modern state are deeply at odds with those that see China in a more nationalistic light as the home of the Han people and civilization. The interplay and tension between these concepts plays out over and over, with the government first sponsoring mosques and cultural events, and then in the name of Marxism sponsoring their destruction as relics of the "old thinking".

More important for security thinking is probably the way that West China (notably Xinjiang and Tibet) have not gained nearly as much from the liberalization of the last few decades as the rest of China. Most of China's extreme poverty is in this part of the country, and health problems are much greater. What development did exist there previously was deeply damaged by mismanagement during the "East Coast First" policy of the early years of liberalization. This has led to great mistrust, and accusations by Uyghur groups that China is trying to colonize the area, in ways similar to European colonization of Africa and Asia.

At the same time, the Islamic community in China is growing, and forming linkages with other Central Asian Islamic communities. Both Pan-Islamism and Pan-Turkism are starting to find roots in Xinjiang, and both of these ideologies directly butt against any kind of service to the state. China rails against both as corruptions of Islam or as founded on fantasies, but it does nothing to stop the appeal of them.

China has now made the fight against the forces of "separatism, religious extremism, and terrorism" a large part of its overall foreign policy, forging close links through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to deal with this very issue. It is important to note that the SCO is mostly important for this purpose, and not as some kind of "anti-US" alliance that some have suggested.

The short version is this: China is a growing power, with a large part of its territory and natural resources in a territory wracked by competing nationalisms and a non-Westphalian structure, and a large part of China's attention and worry will be devoted to keeping it from blowing up. (Which, incidentally, seems like it could happen at any minute.)

Lee: Lee does a great job talking about the different aspects of Chinese military strengthening, before just re-iterating all of the traditional neo-realist talking points. It includes such bits as "should the US decide to cut off China's overseas oil lifeline...China might feel that its legitimate right to energy security has been severely compromised by the US." Really? There is no discussion here of WHY the US might make such a move, or why China would expect such a move from the US, but it is from this little (bizarre) hypothetical that Lee goes on to discuss Chinese plans to expand its military relationship with the Southeast Asian countries.

The actual part of the piece that discusses US worries about a rising China are unfortunately nothing new, and the parts that discuss the actual modernization of China's military are too short and quick to gain much from.

Lastly, Lampton: One reason why I am grateful for the Lampton reading is that it emphasizes that Chinese power is quite a bit more multifaceted than it is often given credit for. Chinese soft power is very strong throughout much of the region and beyond, as a home for great philosophy and important world traditions. (Though I should re-emphasize that China's attacks on this man work to wreck some of that soft power.)

One of the most important parts of China's power is often remarked on but its significance is missed. China went from a very weak and poor country to a powerful and growing country in very little time, at a time when many countries in sub-Saharan Africa instead got poorer. While there can be many reasons for this, using the schematic created by Legro above, it provides many of those countries a reason to change course and adopt a Chinese-style system. Even if China doesn't suggest that, it at the very least gives China a certain air of awesomeness.

And China is building on this, opening educational and governmental exchanges throughout the "global south". While China is still not seen very well in the US, it's image is doing better and better throughout the rest of the world. It is building the very soft power that realists like Lee trivialize.

Fortunately, Lampton doesn't ignore the very real structural problems that China has. As Kerr and Swinton point out, a large part of China is very poor and increasingly looking towards Central Asia for answers. Other parts of the country still cling to the old Maoism, incuding a large part of the educated youth. There is a lot of potential for something unexpected to happen (as it too often does in international politics), and for the system to suffer shocks it is not equipped to handle.

And I think this might be why Lampton last point is even more true than he realizes. He writes that, due to China's growing power, the US needs to engage with China. But even the worst case scenario of a China that collapses under its own internal contradictions (a la the USSR) will require a strong record of engagement by the US to avoid catastrophe. This is something that I think both Legro and Lampton can agree on.

North Korean Dam Issues

2009-09-07T09:39:00.000-07:00

Apparently, North Korea has built several dams near the DMZ, and yesterday an unannounced discharge from one of them swept into South Korea and now six South Koreans are missing. Some are accusing the North Koreans of using the dams as a weapon against the South, and it may be the first setback in the recent thaw.

I'm not sure how likely it is that the North Koreans would have intentionally used the discharge against the South Koreans. It would not shock me in the least if the dams were built where they are as a possible weapon for a later time, but at the same time, incompetence seems to be a common problem with all such projects within North Korea. It is known for certain that one North Korean child also died in the incident, as his body was found yesterday in South Korea.

At the same time, this could be a security threat that is even harder to defend against than the traditiona one. Does South Korea have the right to invade or else blow up the dams that are causing these problems, if repeated discharges cause more deaths? It seems kind of ridiculous, but I can't think of anything else South Korea could do about it, short of just taking out the North Korean regime (and all the hell that would come with THAT).

I'm open to ideas. Oh, and for those who want to see where the river that flooded was, it's the Imjin River:

I think this again shows how horrible it is that Seoul is so close to the border. Again, I have no recommendations, but it's very worrisome for South Korea.

Why we shouldn't worry about China as a global power...

2009-09-03T06:01:00.000-07:00

>Once again, there are riots in Xinjiang, as this time to denounce "deteriorating law and order." Apparently someone or some group of people has been randomly attacking people by stabbing them with hypodermic needles. While the needle part is weird, the unrest is not. Riots happen all the time in China, and the numbers are growing. Remember:

Riots in Tibet, Xinjiang, and Guizhou.

Until China can get its domestic population less angry and more involved in the system, or at least pacified into submission, it will not be able to be the great threat to the international system many try to make it out to be. And with the transnational advocacy groups at work in (at least) Xinjiang and Xizang (East Turkestan and Tibet to the inhabitants), I see little ability to stop the unrest there.

Which brings us to the other China related news. Australia and the US have asked China to take part in war games. While (for the above reasons) I don't think we have to worry about China surpassing the US as the global power, it is still good to see the US (and Australia!) engage in this kind of cooperation and tension reduction. Even a minor power that feels isolated can cause trouble, even if not the world-shaking kind. This is the kind of gesture that costs little and rewards much, I think.

Readings Post I

2009-09-02T10:59:00.001-07:00

This is my first post to discuss the readings I'm doing as part of this course. Today, I read two classic texts on security and it's relationship to culture/regimes. These were

Alistair Iain Johnston, "Thinking about Strategic Culture," International Security. Volume 19,Number 4, (Spring 1995) pp. 32-64.

Robert Jervis, "Security Regimes," International Organization, Volume 36, Number 2, Spring 1982, pp.357-378.

The original plan had also called for reading a piece by Stephen Peter Rosen from the Winter '01 Naval War College Review, but that seems to have been taken down from their website.

As overview pieces into the study of security, particularly culture and regimes, I found them interesting. I've always had a semi-conscious distrust of the very idea of "strategic culture," because it seems to often to lend itself to Orientalist statements about the "true nature" of another culture, often forcing our own pre-conceptions (and usually some degree of barbarity) onto them. At the same time, I know there is a great deal of concern about the possibility that the opposite tack, ascribing universal principles and ideals (a la game theory) is just as bad, because it tries to make everyone think like Westerners.

This came up for me during my thesis defense in '07, because I had used a traditional, game-theoretic view of deterrence and relationships to inform it, and my advisor (a Chinese political scientist) point blank told me that he wasn't sure you could really apply this kind of theoretical model to anything involving China, due to its cultural differences. I wish I could tell you that I had some masterful answer as to why deterrence was still applicable, but I honestly stumbled through that question. (He still gave me an A.)

And that is one thing I want to keep in mind as the semester progresses. It's really easy to get locked into thinking, "Oh, well, the Chinese/Japanese/etc. have this value system, and so we can expect them to do this." It's much more difficult to keep in mind the variations within each state, and that culture is important without necessarily being the dominant factor.

As for Jervis, I can admit to not thinking much about regimes previously. I had some trouble getting through it, but it should be obvious that the security regimes are not very strong in East Asia. The SCO was shown to be a bit of a joke last year with the Russian invasion of Georgia, largely seen to be in support of the kind of separatism that the SCO is supposed to help prevent. I know much less about ASEAN (which is why it's on my list of things to read about this year), but I've not heard too much positive about its security efforts.

At the same time, I don't know that there is much push for regime building in East Asia. The presence of a rogue state seemingly unwilling to play by most international rules (North Korea) along with a rising superpower (China) seems like it could make it difficult to get any kind of regime in place.

In short, it was interesting background, but I'm eager to get to the more concrete stuff.

Japanese revolution?

2009-09-01T19:38:00.000-07:00

I'm not sure whether we are understating or overstating the importance of the Japanese elections. It is amazing to have a new government in Japan that is not LDP, and as this article makes clear, the new government isn't necessarily keen on keeping the kind of relationship the US has long been used to in Japan. There are some major things they want to change around.

At the same time, Japan is a stable liberal democracy, and normally they don't engage in sudden changes to long-standing relationships. That's why we prefer them; they're stable. Besides, the Democratic Party in Japan knows where the real threats in the region are, and where the friends are.

Seriously...which guy would you rather have at your back?

I am particularly heartened, though, by the idea that Japan and China can pursue better relations without it being seen as dangerous by anyone else. This is the kind of thinking that will help keep tensions low and relations productive in East Asia. China and Japan are the two main powers in the area, and improving relations between the two of them and with the US should be a no-brainer.

In other East Asian news...

2009-08-31T12:34:00.000-07:00

I have to say I'm glad for the de-escalation on the Korean peninsula that we've seen recently. Since I've started paying attention to Korea in the early 2000s, it felt like the tensest time I'd seen. Now, with the release of both the American journalists and the South Korean fishermen, it seems like we might be back to our traditional glarefest.

I also find it interesting that the trailing of one of their ships by ours was so heavily reported, but when the UAE actually stops a North Korean ship and finds illicit weapons bound for Iran, it's a big yawn-fest to the media. We'll see if anything comes of it.

Religion and Security in China

2009-08-31T12:21:00.001-07:00

I sometimes wonder if China realizes or cares about its strategic communications. If it did, it would work a lot harder to not seem evil to the Dalai Lama.

The Chinese government seems intent on trying to cast this man as the biggest threat to peace and order in the world. I understand why they do so, in that he represents the focal point of the best-organized, most high-profile secessionist movement in China, but it neglects the fact that most people in the world see in him the loving, doting grandfather they wished they had. Even if he was to secretly support the subjugation of the entire Han race under a Buddhist tyranny, most of the world would still love him and consider him on par with the Pope. (Actually, with the current pope, the Dalai Lama may be better loved.)

To be fair to China, I understand that a (maybe) secessionist leader being invited by a political party that advocates secession for a province that's already a separate country probably looks like the grand alignment of secession. Never mind that, just as the Dalai Lama has no power in Tibet, the DPP is out of power in Taiwan as well, and the current Taiwanese president has been busting his ass to play nice with China.

It is particularly telling that the Chinese government accuses the DPP of inviting the Dalai Lama in order to sabotage cross-strait relations, as if the actual damage was being done by the Taiwanese, instead of by Chinese anger.

In the end, of course, like all things involving Tibet or Taiwan, this will blow over and China will remain in the dominant position. China has been careful not to sabotage relations with President Ma, but it still does not help their image around the world any.

China and Afghanistan

2009-08-28T10:35:00.000-07:00

Francesco Sisci writing in the Asian Times says that recent Chinese maneuvers aimed at force projection could be a wink to NATO and the US that China is prepared to assist in Afghanistan. Sisci goes a long way to showing why China would be useful to the NATO powers in Afghanistan (which, aside from the Byzantine possibility of settling some kind of grand deal with India and Pakistan, has plenty of obvious benefits for an international force that is pleading for more troops).

Galrahn of Information Dissemination believes it to be wishful thinking. (He does add that it would be an amazing thing for Obama is he managed to convince China to participate.)

I would like to put forward my thoughts on a possible hook to bring China into Afghanistan, which unfortunately is part of the possible problem with doing so.

Xinjiang. The Taliban was not only allowing anti-US radicals to operate bases on its territory; it is well known that there were Uyghur nationalist (and possibly terrorist) training bases as well. If Afghanistan was to collapse again, it will happen again. In particular, the East Turkestan Liberation Organization and the (possibly non-existent) East Turkestan Islamic Movement are considered allied to the Taliban.

Unfortunately, the price for getting Chinese help would probably be a free hand to do as they like in dealing with these bases and "terrorists". And, for all the faults of the US in the handling of the War on Terror (and I would argue there are quite a few), it is difficult to believe the Chinese would be less brutal than we have been. Moreover, China would most likely demand an independent structure, due to their strong feelings of sovereignty. (It should be noted that while China contributes to peace-keeping, it has never provided peace-keeping TROOPS, but only engineers, police, doctors, etc.)

I'm not willing to say which would be worse, the complete disintegration of the Afghan government or allowing China the kind of free hand they would likely want in Afghanistan. But dismissing the idea as fantasy doesn't help, and neither does thinking it would be cost-free.

North Korean nuclear test

2009-05-25T04:29:00.000-07:00

Though I haven't yet begun the semester, this was too huge to just ignore. A second nuclear test by North Korea should show them to be a real nuclear power (though the results are still awaiting confirmation).

If North Korea is a standard power, then nuclear weapons on the peninsula could actually be beneficial. If it convinced North Korea that it wasn't going to be subject to attack at any moment by the US, then perhaps it would be willing to better participate in the global arena, or at least stop threatening its southern neighbor.

However, we have no assurances that North Korea is any old country. It is the most opaque country in the world, and its constant belligerence does nothing to soothe anyone. Moreover, the lack of forewarning for this test further shows this; there was no effort to warn the world or make it comfortable with the threat.

Overall, though, unless it is proven to have been a substantial improvement over the last one, it probably won't be much of a game changer. Everyone already knows that North Korea has nuclear weapons; everyone knows they can't really get them reliably past Japan; and everyone knows it would still be suicidal to attack either South Korea or Japan.

What this is

2009-05-24T10:48:00.000-07:00

This is not a blog to weave together all possible knowledge of East Asian Security. Nor is it an attempt to provide live coverage of every little thing that happens and impacts East Asian Security.

Instead, it is a tool that I intend to use to write up my reactions to my readings for the independent study I am doing in East Asian Security, as well as apply those readings to the real world. There will be some current events, as well as some theoretical musings based on my readings. I want to have them online for a few reasons:

1) To make it easier for my professor (who will be mostly out of town this semester) to find and read them, and interact with me.

2) So that I can chart the progression of my thinking on these issues.

3) To stimulate conversation with any random person who might come across this. (I seriously doubt there will be much of the latter, but it's a possibility.)

There will not be much published on here until the beginning of fall semester, but if anything particularly strikes my fancy before then, it will.

Asian Security Study

Final Readings Post

Readings

Institutionalism and Philippines

Not dead yet!

Australia Readings

Search and Rescue Cooperation

Recurring theme

Readings Post

Asinine

Obama's Trip

North Korean special forces

Makes me happy

Indian/Japanese Relations

Preparing for any eventuality

Still going to have bilateral talks with North Korea

Readings Post

Thai/Cambodian Rift

Korean Firefight

Okinawa

Definition of Insanity

Dalai Lama and China, round 5,256

Reading Post IX

Good thinking!

Regionalism and Transnationalism

The Economist on North Korea

Interesting scuttlebutt

Reading Post VIII

Reading Post VII

China might yet get a carrier!

Reading Post Issues

SCO Meeting results in nothing in particular

Unpopular view

Ho hum.

Hearts and Minds in Xinjiang

Reading Post VI

Oh, and speaking of Taiwan...

China/Taiwan News

More substantive posts to come...

China and North Korea

Linked, tangentially, to the last post

Makes the heart bleed

Reading Post V

Indonesian stability

The Communist Club loses another member...

Reading Post IV

Korean Reunification

Thailand

Readings Post IIIb

North Korea vs Pirates!

Readings Post IIIa

China in Iraq

Tire tariffs and Chinese WTO suit

Today's date and what-not...

I'm sorry to see...

Readings Post II

North Korean Dam Issues

Why we shouldn't worry about China as a global power...

Readings Post I

Japanese revolution?

In other East Asian news...

Religion and Security in China

China and Afghanistan

North Korean nuclear test

What this is