Reading Post VII

This week, I attempted to do readings on security in Southeast Asia, specifically the peninsula south of China. However, I found very little about any country other than Thailand. I did read one article about the theoretical institutional balancing of some ASEAN countries, which was not really pertinent.

However, one reading was great:

Aurel Croussaint, "Unrest in Southern Thailand: Contours, Causes, and Consequences," Strategic Insights Vol 4 Issue 2 (Feb 25th).

I knew of the insurgency, and have eaten written some (mostly uninformed) things here about it. What I was unaware of was the degree that Thaksin, the deposed President, was responsible for this insurgency. The actions he took to destroy the power of an opposing political party in the south destroyed all the links between the Malay population there and the government, and he substituted the military (which had productive links) with the national police, who were apparently rather brutal and corrupt.

Of course, this article was written before the coup, which had more to do with economic policies and royalist support. But I get the feeling that the confusion and uproar of the coup has made it more difficult to reverse Thaksin's southern policies.

Also of interest is the further confirmation of David Kilcullen's work. He mentions this insurgency in his book, but we can actually see where the policies of Thailand have pushed people into a more radical identity. In particular, the traditional Islam of this region has been moderate and Sufi, but Salafi, reformist, "extreme" Islam seems to be taking hold. While AQ and JI don't seem to have a toehold yet, many are worried that Thailand (and others) are acting like it is. Here's hoping that AQ and JI don't, but it's a possibility if some kind of solution isn't found.

I was also completely unaware of the fact that these Malay provinces used to be far richer than the country as a whole, and now is quite a bit poorer. Maintaining overall development thus seems to be far more important than often realized.

I still don't understand the overall point of trying so hard to maintain 3 underdeveloped provinces that are not a major part of the economy of the country, have such a radically different ethnic/religious/national make-up, and is willing to fight to be out. But I feel I understand the overall conflict better.